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What Consumer Confidence Tells Us About Unemployment & The S&P 500
After the blistering August heat, the cool(er) winds of fall are always welcome. This year the economy appears to be cooling off at the same
The Fed Is Cutting Rates: What Does It Mean For Asset Allocation?
By now, you’ve probably heard the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates in September. In explaining the thinking of the board, Chairman Jerome Powell
Unemployment Data, The Sahm Rule & The Beveridge Curve
Leading indicators (e.g., the yield curve) have warned of recession since 2022. While useful, they have a variable lag time. The phenomena a leading indicator
The Two-Year Lag: What Is Economic Data Telling Us?
Earlier this year, we wrote about the 2-year lag in monetary policy and why this mattered so much for 2024. As we’re halfway through the
How We Think About Portfolio Value and Achieving Retirement Income
A common headline in the financial press reads: “Experts Say You Need X Portfolio Value To Retire.” These articles must garner significant attention, given their
Unemployment Revisions, Bankruptcies & The Fed’s Dovish Turn
Coming into 2024, the headlines touted higher-than-expected employment numbers. Contrary to expectations, the labor market appeared resilient to higher interest rates. Then came the unemployment
AI’s Impact on Market Breadth: A Sign of Caution?
It has been hard to avoid AI news in markets recently. Big tech companies have been anxious to announce the amount they’re spending to keep
Why 2022 Matters For 2024: The 2-Year Lag & Unemployment
Last week, we received a mixed bag of employment data: Finally, the job openings survey (JOLTS) dropped significantly. Job openings tend to forecast employment (or
Solving High Earners’ Unique Retirement Challenge
During a recent visit to Mount Rainier with my wife, we took several hikes at trailheads within the park. Afterward, we ate lunch at the
The Fed’s Big Decision: How Does It Change Our Outlook?
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced a big policy shift. They declared “mission accomplished” on bringing inflation to heel without an accompanying recession. Moving forward,